Nearly a year after the revolution that toppled President Hosni
Mubarak’s regime, perhaps the most striking development in Egypt is how
casually most people have adapted to the new political conditions,
especially the dominance of Islamists in the transitional Parliament
that has just been elected.
A visitor to Cairo senses two overriding patterns in people’s sentiments: There is no panic, and there is also no consensus. The combination of these is reassuring, as Egyptians seem to be reacting to their stunning revolution followed by a historic political transition with their usual aplomb.
Among the dozens of people that I spoke to during my visit to Cairo in recent days, many questions dominated our conversations, with little certainty in the answers. Unlike events during the past 62 years of Egyptian politics, nobody really knows what will happen in the coming months, which is a good thing. That is because it suggests that events will unfold on the basis of dynamics that have long been missing from Egypt and the rest of the Arab world: the will of the citizenry that will manifest itself through multiple, credible political channels, including parliament, civil society and political parties, the media, the military, the courts and street demonstrations.
There is widespread satisfaction that Mubarak, his sons and some of his officials are now on trial for various serious crimes. However, there is also concern that the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has detained thousands of Egyptians and put them on trial in military tribunals, where there is no appeal mechanism.
The firm parliamentary dominance of the Islamists – the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice party took around 40 percent of seats in the lower house, while the hard-line Salafists took another 20 percent – has generated above all pride in the free electoral process, but also new expectations among different sectors of society. Supporters expect the Islamists to show how good governance without corruption can take root in Arab lands; critics await the Islamists’ failure to deliver if they cannot get beyond the slogans and focus on the immense challenges of economic revival, job-creation and improvement of social services and housing.
Neutral observers and most Egyptians are less concerned about the Islamists – loyal and long-suffering Egyptians who were democratically elected and deserve to govern – and seem most focused on the process by which the SCAF will turn over power to the elected civilian authorities in the coming months. This process should start when Parliament convenes on Jan. 23, and continue with the writing of a new Constitution, the election of the upper house, and then of a president. Months ago, most Egyptians thought former Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa would easily win the presidency; Today that certainty has disappeared, and several other candidates have entered the race.
All eyes are on the upcoming one-year anniversary celebrations of the Jan. 25 revolution, which will provide hints about how the various political forces in the country will cooperate in the months and years ahead. Egyptians enthusiastically discuss the possible combinations of political coalitions that could occur in this period. Civilian authorities will assume more power as the military recedes into the background, from where, as in Turkey, it will want to preserve both its immense privileges and the stability of the country.
Problems persist of course, and threats and dangers with them. Street kids and gang-like behavior, the absence of police in a few quarters, economic stress, insufficient accountability for thousands who died or went missing, and other painful issues generate real anger and concern among many Egyptians. Yet the removal of the former regime and its oppressive rule continues to generate immense satisfaction among Egyptians from all walks of life, who understand that the transition to a legitimate political system of governance takes time. They are buoyed in their self-confidence and national pride by the certitude that the military will not remain in power.
Nearly one year has passed since the Jan. 25 revolution, and one year in the life of Egypt is a second in the life of any other country in the world. The Mubarak men are on trial, Jan. 23 and 25 are just weeks away, a new president will soon be elected, honest men and women of faith will play a greater role in public life, and all other Egyptians have the guaranteed opportunity to have their say and hold the government accountable to unprecedented popular legitimacy.
There is confidence and no panic among Egyptians, I suspect, largely because they have managed their own societies at the national and local levels for around 6,500 years. They know how to do this if given the chance to do so. Now they feel that they have given themselves that chance, which is why they are so calm and confident.
A visitor to Cairo senses two overriding patterns in people’s sentiments: There is no panic, and there is also no consensus. The combination of these is reassuring, as Egyptians seem to be reacting to their stunning revolution followed by a historic political transition with their usual aplomb.
Among the dozens of people that I spoke to during my visit to Cairo in recent days, many questions dominated our conversations, with little certainty in the answers. Unlike events during the past 62 years of Egyptian politics, nobody really knows what will happen in the coming months, which is a good thing. That is because it suggests that events will unfold on the basis of dynamics that have long been missing from Egypt and the rest of the Arab world: the will of the citizenry that will manifest itself through multiple, credible political channels, including parliament, civil society and political parties, the media, the military, the courts and street demonstrations.
There is widespread satisfaction that Mubarak, his sons and some of his officials are now on trial for various serious crimes. However, there is also concern that the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has detained thousands of Egyptians and put them on trial in military tribunals, where there is no appeal mechanism.
The firm parliamentary dominance of the Islamists – the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice party took around 40 percent of seats in the lower house, while the hard-line Salafists took another 20 percent – has generated above all pride in the free electoral process, but also new expectations among different sectors of society. Supporters expect the Islamists to show how good governance without corruption can take root in Arab lands; critics await the Islamists’ failure to deliver if they cannot get beyond the slogans and focus on the immense challenges of economic revival, job-creation and improvement of social services and housing.
Neutral observers and most Egyptians are less concerned about the Islamists – loyal and long-suffering Egyptians who were democratically elected and deserve to govern – and seem most focused on the process by which the SCAF will turn over power to the elected civilian authorities in the coming months. This process should start when Parliament convenes on Jan. 23, and continue with the writing of a new Constitution, the election of the upper house, and then of a president. Months ago, most Egyptians thought former Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa would easily win the presidency; Today that certainty has disappeared, and several other candidates have entered the race.
All eyes are on the upcoming one-year anniversary celebrations of the Jan. 25 revolution, which will provide hints about how the various political forces in the country will cooperate in the months and years ahead. Egyptians enthusiastically discuss the possible combinations of political coalitions that could occur in this period. Civilian authorities will assume more power as the military recedes into the background, from where, as in Turkey, it will want to preserve both its immense privileges and the stability of the country.
Problems persist of course, and threats and dangers with them. Street kids and gang-like behavior, the absence of police in a few quarters, economic stress, insufficient accountability for thousands who died or went missing, and other painful issues generate real anger and concern among many Egyptians. Yet the removal of the former regime and its oppressive rule continues to generate immense satisfaction among Egyptians from all walks of life, who understand that the transition to a legitimate political system of governance takes time. They are buoyed in their self-confidence and national pride by the certitude that the military will not remain in power.
Nearly one year has passed since the Jan. 25 revolution, and one year in the life of Egypt is a second in the life of any other country in the world. The Mubarak men are on trial, Jan. 23 and 25 are just weeks away, a new president will soon be elected, honest men and women of faith will play a greater role in public life, and all other Egyptians have the guaranteed opportunity to have their say and hold the government accountable to unprecedented popular legitimacy.
There is confidence and no panic among Egyptians, I suspect, largely because they have managed their own societies at the national and local levels for around 6,500 years. They know how to do this if given the chance to do so. Now they feel that they have given themselves that chance, which is why they are so calm and confident.
No comments:
Post a Comment